Tell students that materials flow into and out of systems. Introduce the concept of stocks and flows in a system. Encourage them to discuss the scientific evidence with each other to better assess their level of certainty with their predictions.ģ. Let students know that they should think about what scientific data is available as they assess their certainty with their answers. Tell students they will be asked questions about the certainty of their predictions. The crop yield could be affected by a pest infestation.) Why do you think the crop models still have uncertainty even after accounting for precipitation and temperature differences year to year? (Student answers will vary.This is because crop yields are dependent on temperature and precipitation as well as technological improvements.) Does the technology trend (gray line) accurately predict crop yields? (No, the technology trend does not adequately predict crop yields.The total uncertainty is shown by the red lines outside the pink shading. The pink shading shows the expected yield based on temperature and precipitation influences. The gray line shows the predictions for crop yield based on technological improvements. (Download the image by clicking on the down arrow in the lower right corner of the carousel window.) Tell students that these graphs show the average daily precipitation, number of hot days, and yield of maize. Show the Projection of Maize Crop Yields in France graphs. Tell students that they can see examples of scientists' uncertainty in forecasting crop yields. Tell students that science is a process of learning how the world works and that scientists do not know the “right” answers when they start to investigate a question. Discuss the role of uncertainty in the scientific process. Would you plant a crop that needs a lot of moisture in El Paso, Texas? (No, a crop that requires a lot of moisture would not do well in El Paso unless there was irrigation.The climate in Minneapolis is very different.) There is no dry season in Quibdó, and the temperature remains warm year-round. Will a crop grow the same in Quibdó, Colombia and Minneapolis, Minnesota? (No, the crops will grow differently.(Download the image from the media carousel above by clicking on the down arrow in the lower right corner of the carousel window.) These graphs provide climate information for Quibdó, Colombia Minneapolis, Minnesota and El Paso, Texas. Some plants have long growing seasons while others have shorter growing seasons. Tell students that plants need water and sunlight to grow. Engage students in learning about climate and crop growth.
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